Now that USC has lost to Oregon State, let's look at the national title landscape and make some new predictions. Mind you, I'm wiritng this on Friday night ... as Louisville is cruising past Connecticut. Scratch that, UofL 21, UConn 17.
What we know, conference by conference:
1. ACC: Unless Wake goes undefeated (highly doubtful), no ACC team will play in the BCS title game. Wake is the only undefeated team, and the conference once again looks fairly weak. Maryland's shocker over Cal gave it some good pub, but Maryland also lost to Middle Tennessee. Clemson's egg laying vs. Alabama set the tone. Prediction (of getting into the BCS title game): No chance.
2. Big East: West Virginia's 1-2 start has not helped the Big East in the least. South Florida and UConn remain undefeated. It would take a 12-0 record from both these teams to even give the Big East a shot, given their poor performance against non-conference foes. South Florida, if they run the table, are probably the only real contender for the BCS title game, because of their quality win over a ranked Kansas team. Prediction: no chance.
3. Big Ten: Given the bad publicity, it would take an undefeated team to make it to the BCS title game, unless all hell breaks loose (like last year ... and which has continued with the Beavers win yesterday ... is it getting colder in here [think Dante]). The two teams that have a real shot in my mind are Penn State and Wisconsin. Penn State has been rolling over teams and an impressive performance in the Big Ten schedule (and a 12-0 record) would catapault them into the BCS title game, unless there were three unbeatens and the other two came from the SEC and Big XII. Ohio State in my mind still has a very, very, very slim chance of making it, and only if they go 11-1 and win impressively in every big game the rest of the way. Prediction: The Big Ten will beat each other up, so no title game this year.
4. Big Twelve: A one-loss team from the Big Twelve could make the BCS title game. I am not a Big XII buff myself, but the Big XII is loaded. Colorado showed that with its impressive win over West Virginia. Even Baylor has some talent! Missouri's offense is dynamite, although its defense leaves something to be desired. Sam Bradford and OU are stacked as always and Texas Tech is going to average 42 points a game. Prediction: The Big XII champ will play in the BCS title game.
5. Pacific 10: Well, before yesterday, I would have put USC in the title game, but now ... no way. This conference is 0-5 vs. the Mountain West and 0-3 vs. the Big Twelve. USC needed to go undefeated to make the big dance. They just looked too terrible against Oregon State. Prediction: outside shot for USC if they look impressive as they did against the Buckeyes the rest of the way, but most likely they will lose again.
6. SEC: Georgia, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn. This is a conference whose D-lines could step into the NFL seemingly without missing a beat. The winner of the SEC this year plays in the BCS title game, period. The only way it wouldn't happen is if the champ had 3 losses. Florida's schedule presents the best opportunity, but who knows. The conference's resume so far is really good: Alabama 34, Clemson 10; S. Car. 34, NC State 0 (who beat ECU); Florida 26, Miami 3; Kentucky 27, UofK 27, UofL 2; Georgia 27, ASU 10. The only real brain-fart was Tennessee's loss to UCLA. Tennessee is really down ... where have you gone, Peyton Manning?
Prediction: The Big XII winner vs. the SEC winner.
Most likely matchup: Oklahoma vs. Florida. Florida 34, OU 20, making it three straight for the SEC.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Wacky College Football
USC 35, Ohio State 3
Oregon State 27, USC 21
The USC Trojans, who looked unstoppable against our Buckeyes, looked terrible vs. the Beavers. the Beavers! This was the same team that lost to Penn State by 31. So let's do the logic.
Penn State 45, Oregon State 14 ... Oregon State 27, USC 21 ... USC 35, Ohio State 3
So when Penn State comes to visit in Columbus, we can expect the Nittany Lions to win somewhere in the range of 84-0. Not likely. All too often we as fans forget that these are 18-21 year old kids. As CFN wrote in teir piece on the Oregon State - USC game, Pete Carroll and his staff probably said all the right things, but in the end, the USC players believed their own press.
This college football world is wacky, which is why I love it.
Oregon State 27, USC 21
The USC Trojans, who looked unstoppable against our Buckeyes, looked terrible vs. the Beavers. the Beavers! This was the same team that lost to Penn State by 31. So let's do the logic.
Penn State 45, Oregon State 14 ... Oregon State 27, USC 21 ... USC 35, Ohio State 3
So when Penn State comes to visit in Columbus, we can expect the Nittany Lions to win somewhere in the range of 84-0. Not likely. All too often we as fans forget that these are 18-21 year old kids. As CFN wrote in teir piece on the Oregon State - USC game, Pete Carroll and his staff probably said all the right things, but in the end, the USC players believed their own press.
This college football world is wacky, which is why I love it.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Tressel's Record vs. Ranked Opponents
As every Buckeye fan well knows, the Buckeyes will travel to Los Angeles to face the #1 ranked USC Trojans on September 13th. This post will look at Tressel's record vs. top-ranked oponents and ranked opponents in general.
Jim Tressel's overall record (2001-present): 74-16 (.822 winning percentage)
Record vs. (AP) ranked opponents: 29-9 (.763 winning percentage - not far off the total!)
Record vs. Top 10 Opponents: 8-4
Record vs. Top 5 Opponents: 3-4
Record vs. #2 Ranked Opponents: 2-3
Record vs. #1 Ranked Opponents: 1-0 (2002 BCS NC Game vs. Miami-Fla.)
Of course, in the last two national championship games, the Buckeyes have been the #1 ranked team facing two separate #2 ranked teams in Florida (2006) and LSU (2007), both ending up in losses.
Just as Ohio State went in as underdogs vs. Miami-Fla. in the 2002 National Championship game, so the Buckeyes will likely be underdogs when they face USC in the LA Coliseum on Sept. 13th. USC look like a well-oiled machine in their 52-7 victory over Virginia.
Tressel's games against top 5 opponents:
1/3/03: OSU 31, Miami 24 (20T - BCS)
After getting waxed in two consecutive national championship games, Buckeye fans need to feel very reatful and slightly amazed at the performance of the 2002 Buckeyes in that game against the Hurricanes. Coming out of that game, I think both Imyself and other fans just thought, "We'll win every game like this, as long as we can get to it." Not so, as we have seen. And if we are honest, it was amazing that we even beat Miami on that fateful January day. Miamii turnover the ball 5 times, and still forced the game to go to two overtimes. If Miami and Ohio State plaeyd a seven game series, Miami probably would have won in six. But they only play one. And because of that, the Buckeyes won the 2002 national championship.
11/22/03: #5 Michigan 35, #4 Ohio State 21 (in Ann Arbor)
A little revenge for the Wolverinese after Ohio State defeated Michigan 14-9 in 2002, a game in which Michigan dominated in the first half, but only lead by a scoreof 9-7. Less Maurice Clarett in 2003, the Buckeyes simply did not have the offense to win against the elite teams.
9/10/05: #2 Texas 25, #4 Ohio State 22 (in Columbus)
Oh, what might have been. In the year that Vince Young led his Longhorns to the national championship, the Buckeyes had a near miss. Had Ryan Hamby caught a endzone pass from Justin Zwick, the game probably would have ended up in a Buckeye victory. It was not to be.
9/9/06: #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 (in Austin)
Revenge and simply a better team helped the Buckeyes dominate the Longhorns, who were honestly overrated, especially since Colt McCoy had very little experience at quarterback, and it showed.
11/18/06: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (in Columbus)
A game that Ohio State easily could have lost, especially without the help of a late hit on Troy Smith. A classic win by the Buckeyes. However ... in hindsight, any team that gives up 39 points in a game ...
1/8/06: #2 Florida 41, #1 Ohio State 14 (BCS NC Game, Glendale, AZ)
.... can easily give up 41 to a team that is just as good, oh wait, even better than the team it played a couple months previously. Was the defense simply overrated by shutting down a #2 Texas and giving up only 7 points in the beginning of the season? Troy Smith and company on offense seemed unprepared for the Florida defense, and it was easily Jim Tressel's worst loss.
1/7/2008: #2 LSU 38, #1 Ohio State 24 (BCS NC Game - New Orleans)
One bad quarter can ruin a whole four quarters. The Buckeyes keeled over and died in the second quarter, giving up 21 points, and it was all over but the crying. LSU was the most complete team last season when it was healthy, and it showed in this game, that was closer than the score. But the best team won, and that wasn't the Buckeyes.
Can the Buckeyes beat USC on Sept. 13th? Yes, but they will have to put together a complete game, with key players coming up with big plays, and keeping mistakes to a minimum. USC's ego going through the roof before the game and thinking they will crush Ohio State couldn't hurt either. My preaseason prediction was USC 38, Ohio State 35. I will stick to that for now, especially considering Beanie's injury. Interestingly enough, College Football News, who I greatly respect, has the Buckeyes winning against the Trojans. It will be interesting to see their reasoning next week in their preview of the game. Terrelle Pryor could definitely be the X factor. It will be a great game.
Jim Tressel's overall record (2001-present): 74-16 (.822 winning percentage)
Record vs. (AP) ranked opponents: 29-9 (.763 winning percentage - not far off the total!)
Record vs. Top 10 Opponents: 8-4
Record vs. Top 5 Opponents: 3-4
Record vs. #2 Ranked Opponents: 2-3
Record vs. #1 Ranked Opponents: 1-0 (2002 BCS NC Game vs. Miami-Fla.)
Of course, in the last two national championship games, the Buckeyes have been the #1 ranked team facing two separate #2 ranked teams in Florida (2006) and LSU (2007), both ending up in losses.
Just as Ohio State went in as underdogs vs. Miami-Fla. in the 2002 National Championship game, so the Buckeyes will likely be underdogs when they face USC in the LA Coliseum on Sept. 13th. USC look like a well-oiled machine in their 52-7 victory over Virginia.
Tressel's games against top 5 opponents:
1/3/03: OSU 31, Miami 24 (20T - BCS)
After getting waxed in two consecutive national championship games, Buckeye fans need to feel very reatful and slightly amazed at the performance of the 2002 Buckeyes in that game against the Hurricanes. Coming out of that game, I think both Imyself and other fans just thought, "We'll win every game like this, as long as we can get to it." Not so, as we have seen. And if we are honest, it was amazing that we even beat Miami on that fateful January day. Miamii turnover the ball 5 times, and still forced the game to go to two overtimes. If Miami and Ohio State plaeyd a seven game series, Miami probably would have won in six. But they only play one. And because of that, the Buckeyes won the 2002 national championship.
11/22/03: #5 Michigan 35, #4 Ohio State 21 (in Ann Arbor)
A little revenge for the Wolverinese after Ohio State defeated Michigan 14-9 in 2002, a game in which Michigan dominated in the first half, but only lead by a scoreof 9-7. Less Maurice Clarett in 2003, the Buckeyes simply did not have the offense to win against the elite teams.
9/10/05: #2 Texas 25, #4 Ohio State 22 (in Columbus)
Oh, what might have been. In the year that Vince Young led his Longhorns to the national championship, the Buckeyes had a near miss. Had Ryan Hamby caught a endzone pass from Justin Zwick, the game probably would have ended up in a Buckeye victory. It was not to be.
9/9/06: #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 (in Austin)
Revenge and simply a better team helped the Buckeyes dominate the Longhorns, who were honestly overrated, especially since Colt McCoy had very little experience at quarterback, and it showed.
11/18/06: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (in Columbus)
A game that Ohio State easily could have lost, especially without the help of a late hit on Troy Smith. A classic win by the Buckeyes. However ... in hindsight, any team that gives up 39 points in a game ...
1/8/06: #2 Florida 41, #1 Ohio State 14 (BCS NC Game, Glendale, AZ)
.... can easily give up 41 to a team that is just as good, oh wait, even better than the team it played a couple months previously. Was the defense simply overrated by shutting down a #2 Texas and giving up only 7 points in the beginning of the season? Troy Smith and company on offense seemed unprepared for the Florida defense, and it was easily Jim Tressel's worst loss.
1/7/2008: #2 LSU 38, #1 Ohio State 24 (BCS NC Game - New Orleans)
One bad quarter can ruin a whole four quarters. The Buckeyes keeled over and died in the second quarter, giving up 21 points, and it was all over but the crying. LSU was the most complete team last season when it was healthy, and it showed in this game, that was closer than the score. But the best team won, and that wasn't the Buckeyes.
Can the Buckeyes beat USC on Sept. 13th? Yes, but they will have to put together a complete game, with key players coming up with big plays, and keeping mistakes to a minimum. USC's ego going through the roof before the game and thinking they will crush Ohio State couldn't hurt either. My preaseason prediction was USC 38, Ohio State 35. I will stick to that for now, especially considering Beanie's injury. Interestingly enough, College Football News, who I greatly respect, has the Buckeyes winning against the Trojans. It will be interesting to see their reasoning next week in their preview of the game. Terrelle Pryor could definitely be the X factor. It will be a great game.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
A Look at the Other National Title Contenders in 2008
Here's a quick look at the national title contenders and who may be in the national title this season.
Rules for choosing the #1 and #2 BCS teams:
1. If an SEC team goes undefeated, it automatically becomes the #1 BCS team.
2. If the winner of the OSU-USC game goes undefeated, it will earn an automatic berth in the national championship game.
3. Other teams with a shot, if they go undefeated: Any Big 12 team, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
4. Teams that would need others to lose: the ACC, the Pac-10 other than USC, the Big East other than West Virginia.
Teams with the best shot of making the BCS National Championship Game:
1. USC Trojans
Tough Games: vs. Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA
My Thoughts: USC looked really impressive against Virginia and all of their tough games are at home this season. Normally this would be a 2 loss team, but I hink the Trojans will only lose one game b/c they will beat OSU in a classic). Likely that will put them in the BCS National Championship game.
Predicted Final Record: 11-1 (will beat OSU, lose one Pac-10 game)
2. Florida Gators
Tough Games: at Tennessee, vs. LSU, Georgia (acksonville)
My Thoughts: Florida misses Alabama and Auburn in their regular season schedule and gets LSU at home. The schedule stacks up very well for Tebow and company and they will lose one of their regular season contests and win the SEC Championship, and thus play USC in the national championship game, giving fans the BCS game they have been dreaming of (since USC-Texas of course).
Predicted Final Record: 12-1 (will lose to either Tennessee or LSU, will beat Georgia)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Tough Games: at USC, at Wisconsin, vs. Penn State, at Illinois
My Thoughts: After losing a heartbreaker, the Buckeyes will set their sights on becoming the first Big Ten team in history to accomplish three outright Big Ten titles, which they will accomplish (although facing nail-biters in Madison and Champaign).
Predicted Final Record: 11-1 (will lose to USC, and thus will play in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1996).
4. Georgia Bulldogs
tough Games: Almost every game on the schedule, except for maybe Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia Tech (and even then...!)
My Thoughts: Georgia's schedule is absolutely brutal. They will lose 2 games (Florida and either Alabama, Auburn or Tennesse). They face all the best West teams (Alabama, Auburn, LSU) and play a tough non-conference schedule at Arizona State and vs. a Tebow-esque LeFevour vs. Central Michigan.
Predicted Final Record: 10-2 (Sugar Bowl)
5. Oklahoma Sooners
Tough Games: vs. Texas (Dallas), Kansas, Texas Tech, Missouri (in Big 12 Championship)
My Thoughts: Oklahoma will lose one of the games above AND some crazy game tat they don't show up for (Cincinnati? TCU? at Kansas State?). They are always good for one bad loss. They will however beat oddly enough make it to the Big 12 championship game and beat Missouri, and then lose their bowl game, again.
Predicted Final Record: 11-2 (after defeating Missouri in the title game)
6. Missouri Tigers
Tough Games: at Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma (Big 12 Title game)
My thoughts: The schedule (other than going to Texas) actually lines up for them really well. They will lose at Texas, beat everybody else, then lose to OU in the title game, again.
Predicted Final Record: 11-2 (after losing to OU in the title game)
7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Tough Games: at East Carolina, Auburn, at Pitt, South Florida
My Thoughts: After losing to Auburn at home, they will be disqualified for the national title game, since Auburn won't even win the SEC West (my pick btw - LSU). They will also lose either at Pitt, who will get their act together by the end of the season or vs. South Florida, a very tough last two games of the season.
Predicted Final Record: 10-2 (BCS bowl)
8. LSU Tigers
Tough Games: at Auburn, at Florida, Georgia, Alabama
My Thoughts: LSU will stun everybody by going 11-1 in th regular season and losing to Florida in the SEC title game (who was also 11-1), even with their QB issues. This team is so loaded at every other position. I could be QB with this team and they would go 8-4. Expect LSU to be in the top 5 the whole season, only to lose a very tough SEC title game (the legend of Tebow will grow ...).
Predicted Final Record: 11-2
So my prediction for the Bowls are:
BCS: #1 Florida vs. #2 USC
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Georgia vs. Missouri
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. BYU
Orange: Boston College vs. South Florida
Rules for choosing the #1 and #2 BCS teams:
1. If an SEC team goes undefeated, it automatically becomes the #1 BCS team.
2. If the winner of the OSU-USC game goes undefeated, it will earn an automatic berth in the national championship game.
3. Other teams with a shot, if they go undefeated: Any Big 12 team, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
4. Teams that would need others to lose: the ACC, the Pac-10 other than USC, the Big East other than West Virginia.
Teams with the best shot of making the BCS National Championship Game:
1. USC Trojans
Tough Games: vs. Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA
My Thoughts: USC looked really impressive against Virginia and all of their tough games are at home this season. Normally this would be a 2 loss team, but I hink the Trojans will only lose one game b/c they will beat OSU in a classic). Likely that will put them in the BCS National Championship game.
Predicted Final Record: 11-1 (will beat OSU, lose one Pac-10 game)
2. Florida Gators
Tough Games: at Tennessee, vs. LSU, Georgia (acksonville)
My Thoughts: Florida misses Alabama and Auburn in their regular season schedule and gets LSU at home. The schedule stacks up very well for Tebow and company and they will lose one of their regular season contests and win the SEC Championship, and thus play USC in the national championship game, giving fans the BCS game they have been dreaming of (since USC-Texas of course).
Predicted Final Record: 12-1 (will lose to either Tennessee or LSU, will beat Georgia)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Tough Games: at USC, at Wisconsin, vs. Penn State, at Illinois
My Thoughts: After losing a heartbreaker, the Buckeyes will set their sights on becoming the first Big Ten team in history to accomplish three outright Big Ten titles, which they will accomplish (although facing nail-biters in Madison and Champaign).
Predicted Final Record: 11-1 (will lose to USC, and thus will play in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1996).
4. Georgia Bulldogs
tough Games: Almost every game on the schedule, except for maybe Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia Tech (and even then...!)
My Thoughts: Georgia's schedule is absolutely brutal. They will lose 2 games (Florida and either Alabama, Auburn or Tennesse). They face all the best West teams (Alabama, Auburn, LSU) and play a tough non-conference schedule at Arizona State and vs. a Tebow-esque LeFevour vs. Central Michigan.
Predicted Final Record: 10-2 (Sugar Bowl)
5. Oklahoma Sooners
Tough Games: vs. Texas (Dallas), Kansas, Texas Tech, Missouri (in Big 12 Championship)
My Thoughts: Oklahoma will lose one of the games above AND some crazy game tat they don't show up for (Cincinnati? TCU? at Kansas State?). They are always good for one bad loss. They will however beat oddly enough make it to the Big 12 championship game and beat Missouri, and then lose their bowl game, again.
Predicted Final Record: 11-2 (after defeating Missouri in the title game)
6. Missouri Tigers
Tough Games: at Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma (Big 12 Title game)
My thoughts: The schedule (other than going to Texas) actually lines up for them really well. They will lose at Texas, beat everybody else, then lose to OU in the title game, again.
Predicted Final Record: 11-2 (after losing to OU in the title game)
7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Tough Games: at East Carolina, Auburn, at Pitt, South Florida
My Thoughts: After losing to Auburn at home, they will be disqualified for the national title game, since Auburn won't even win the SEC West (my pick btw - LSU). They will also lose either at Pitt, who will get their act together by the end of the season or vs. South Florida, a very tough last two games of the season.
Predicted Final Record: 10-2 (BCS bowl)
8. LSU Tigers
Tough Games: at Auburn, at Florida, Georgia, Alabama
My Thoughts: LSU will stun everybody by going 11-1 in th regular season and losing to Florida in the SEC title game (who was also 11-1), even with their QB issues. This team is so loaded at every other position. I could be QB with this team and they would go 8-4. Expect LSU to be in the top 5 the whole season, only to lose a very tough SEC title game (the legend of Tebow will grow ...).
Predicted Final Record: 11-2
So my prediction for the Bowls are:
BCS: #1 Florida vs. #2 USC
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Georgia vs. Missouri
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. BYU
Orange: Boston College vs. South Florida
Ohio State 43, Youngstown State 0
Other than the fact that it was a win for the Buckeyes, nothing else matters except Beanie Wells' injury. Will Beanie be able to play against USC? Will he be 100%? It seems to be a consensus among fans and pundits that Ohio State would be a big underdog without Beanie in LA. It sounds so far that he will be able to play, and Pete Carroll has said that USC will train as if he is fine.
High points:
High points:
- Freshmen coming into their own: Terrelle Pryor and Devier Posey each had a touchdown and both looked great doing it. It is great to see these stars of the future already give a boost to the OSU offense.
- The shutout. Even though it was Younstown State, it is good to see the Buckeyes getting a shutout, their first since 44-0 victory over Minnesota in 2006 in Columbus.
- Total domiation by the defense. It wasn't just a shutout. Youngstown State was held to -11 yards rushing. They will need to keep that up against USC, Wisconsin, Illinois and the rest. Can they? We'll see.
Rough spots:
- 9 scoring drives! 5 field goals?!?! I guess that is the best we could expect against Youngstown State on day #1 of the season, but this ratio will have to improve drastically if the Buckeyes want to win a national championship.
- The offensive line let too many people hit Boeckman. USC has amazing defensive linemen and if the Buckeyes don't improve, it could be an ugly day in LA.
Lots of positives, though. Go Bucks!
Next week: Another snoozer vs. the Bobcats of Ohio U.
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