Can Ohio State make the BCS title game?

Can the Buckeyes get back to the BCS title game?

Now that the BCS Standings have come out, let’s take a look at how the Buckeyes fare and if they even have a prayer to get to the BCS title game.

What do the Buckeyes have to do to get to the title game?

1. Win, win, win and win big. The Buckeyes only have a shot because Penn State is ranked #3 in the country and almost everyone agrees that they are a legitimate title contender. A big win over Penn State would show the voters that this Ohio State team is for real, and that they are a very different team that visited L.A. on September 13^th.

2. Everybody else? Lose, and lose often.

A. The Big 12 South

The good news for the Buckeyes is that although they are ranked in the BCS Week 1 Standings, four of the teams ahead of them are in the Big XII. Why is that good? Here’s why – they play each other often, which means that three of them will lose at least once. Here is the remaining schedule for those teams (just against each other!):

10/25: #6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas – if the Cowboys lose and the Buckeyes win this week, they will likely drop lower than the Buckeyes.

11/1: #1 Texas at #8 Texas Tech – same goes for the Red Raiders in this game, although they play a tough road contest against Kansas on 10/25, so they could fall this Saturday as well.

11/8: #6 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas Tech – if either of these teams lose before this game, this will be the clincher loss for one team.

11/22: #8 Texas Tech at #4 Oklahoma – The Red Raiders have given Oklahoma fits in recent years and another loss for the Sooners would finish their title hopes.

11/29: #4 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State – this will be a hard fought battle, and the loser’s title hopes will definitely end.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State each play 2 of these games and Texas Tech plays 3 – all of these teams could easily lose once more just against each other, let alone in the rest of their schedule.

Other tough games for these teams include:

10/25: Texas Tech at Kansas

11/15: Texas at Kansas

12/6: Big 12 Title Game

B. The SEC

The big problem for Ohio State is that although only Alabama (#2) and Georgia (#7) are ahead of them in the SEC, Florida (#10) and LSU (#13) would easily jump ahead of the Buckeyes if they win out and win the SEC Championship. The fact of the matter is that the country is so high on the SEC that even a two-loss SEC champion will likely play in the national title game. What do the Buckeyes need for this not to happen? Let’s look at the situation in the SEC.

• Only these four teams have a real shot at the BCS title game. Vanderbilt and Kentucky both have two losses, but neither has a real shot at winning the SEC.
• This Saturday, Georgia (#7) travels to Baton Rouge to face LSU (#13) and it is likely that the loser of this game, especially if it is LSU will be out of the title hunt. Then, we are down to three SEC contenders.
• On 11/1, Florida and Georgia face off in Jacksonville. The loser of this game likely will be out of the race only because they would not win their division (the SEC East). Hopefully for the Buckeyes, Georgia loses to LSU and beats Florida.
• 11/8: Alabama visits LSU in the SEC West match-up that will decide the SEC West’s representative in the SEC title game. The ideal situation for the Buckeyes is that LSU beats Alabama (likely their first loss).
• These are the only games in which these teams face each other, other than the SEC Championship game. It’s my guess that an undefeated Alabama will face a one-loss Florida and the winner of that game will go to the BCS title game. But we can only hope.
• Other games in which these teams could possibly (but not probably) lose are:
• 10/25: Alabama at Tennessee
• 11/8: Georgia at Kentucky (at times the Dawgs have struggled on offense, and Kentucky plays excellent defense, so this could be close).
• 11/15: Georgia at Auburn (rivalry game)
• 11/22: Ole Miss at LSU (Ole Miss has already knocked off Florida at home, could it do the same in Baton Rouge?).
• 11/29: Auburn at Alabama, Florida at FSU, Georgia Tech at Georgia – losses in these games would boost Ohio State’s chances in a huge way.

C. The Rest

#3 Penn State is an obvious one. If the Buckeyes win, they rise above Penn State. Easier said than done.

#5 USC – Real simple. If USC loses again, it is out. The problem … they are humming. Even if Washington State stinks, 69 points against anybody is impressive. Ohio State could only rack up 43 against Youngstown State. The only real tests left for USC are:

• 10/25 (this Saturday) at Arizona – probably their biggest chance for a loss. Arizona has looked impressive at home, beating California by 15 and Washington by 34. This will be a real test for USC.
• Do they have another one? Their remaining schedule after Arizona is … vs. Washington, vs. Cal, at Stanford (they won’t be bit this time), vs. Notre Dame and at UCLA (not really away per se). The fact of the matter is, USC should win all of these games. But as the saying goes, don’t bet on what 18-21 year-old boys do on a given Saturday.

BCS Busters:

The only non-BCS conference teams with a shot are Utah (#11) and Boise State (#12).

Utah, 8-0 and leading the Mountain West conference, leads a conference that is 8-4 against BCS conferences (including a 6-1 mark against the Pac 10!) and has looked impressive all year. If they beat both TCU and BYU (home games), they will have an impressive slate of wins to their credit. It is still unlikely however, that they would jump ahead of a one-loss BCS school like Ohio State, although that remains to be seen.

Boise State, who is 6-0 and is atop the Western Athletic Conference, would have a much tougher road to get to the BCS title game. The WAC is only 4-11 against BCS conference opponents, and although they beat Oregon 37-32, the rest of their schedule has not been very tough. It would take a major miracle for the Broncos to make the BCS title game.

So can it happen? Can Ohio State make the BCS title game? Yes, but it would take every team above them to lose at least once, and sometimes twice. There is too much that they need to have happen to expect going to the BCS title game if they go undefeated. If they do win out, it looks like a trip to the Rose Bowl, which hasn’t happened since the 1996-97 season (Joe Germaine to David Boston ring a bell?) and their win over Arizona State and Jake Plummer.

Go Bucks!

Ohio State 45, Michigan State 7

Wow! Now that is what we were expecting out of our Buckeyes this whole season. Considering how bad they have looked at times, it is amazing to think that the Bucks are 7-1, #9 in the BCS Week 1 Standings, and still has a chance at an outright Big Ten title.

Ohio State absolutely destroyed Michigan STate, going up 21-0 in the first quarter, and the Bucks never looked back. The Spartans looked pretty good in the 3rd quarter until Malcolm Jenkins forced a fumble and Thaddeus Gibson returned it for a touchdown to make it 35-7. All over but the crying at that point. The thing that was most impressive was that our defense is back! The swarming, swaggering defense that we have grown to expect out of Ohio State came in full force, forcing 5 turnovers and holding MSU to just 7 points, a team that had the nation's second leading rusher before the day started.

Penn State is next. How good are they really? They have coasted against everyone, but they have only faced two teams with a winning record (Oregon State 4-3 and Illinois 4-3). Clearly since Oregon State beat USC, you could say that the win over the Beavers was definitely a quality win. The Nittany Lions will have a much tougher test this week against our Bucks. My guess is that it will be a great game. Off the cuff prediction: Ohio State 35, Penn State 24.

Big Ten Update

Let's take a look at how the Big Ten is shaping up so far. First, let's look at the standings

Team/Conf. W-L/Overall W-L

1. Penn State/2-0/6-0
2. Ohio State/2-0/5-1
3. Michigan State/2-0/5-1
4. Northwestern/1-0/5-0
5. Minnesota/1-1/5-1
6. Illinois/1-1/3-2
7. Michigan/1-1/2-3
8. Purdue/0-1/2-3
9. Wisconsin/0-2/3-2
10. Iowa/0-2/3-3
11. Indiana/0-2/2-3

At first glance, the team that really seems out of wack is Wisconsin, at the bottom with an 0-2 record. Many had this team winning the Big Ten this year, and clearly this is not a possibility, having already lost twice, and especially to Ohio State. The Badgers are once again facing a tough opponent int he Nittany Lions this week, and could easily go 0-3 to start their Big Ten season.

Penn State clearly has been the most dominant team in the Big Ten, averaging 44.8 points a game, and only giving up 11.6 point per game. They had an impressive win over Illinois (ranked #22 at the time), but face their toughest test this Saturday when they travel to Wisconsin, a team that will be hell-bent on not going 0-3 in the conference. If the Nittany Lions can come out with a win, the Penn State-Ohio State tilt on October 25th will most likely produce the Big Ten champion. Penn State remains one of only two undefeated Big Ten teams, and a BCS title game bid is not out of the question, but only if they run the table.

Michigan State has been impressive so far, with only a 38-31 loss at Cal in the loss column. However, their two Big Ten wins have come against Indiana and Iowa, so they really haven't been tested. This Saturday's game against Northwestern and then their Oct. 18th game against the Buckeyes will tell even more.

Ohio State, also tied for the Big Ten lead at 2-0, is a team with a lot of question marks. Ohio State is near the bottom of the conference in scoring offense (Iowa has scored more points folks ... ouch), but the defense remains tough, although has given up 35 to USC and has melted down at times, such as in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin, letting the Badgers ram it down their throats with mostly up the middle rushing plays. The Buckeyes are weak up front on the D-line, and have rarely rushed the passer with much success. If this continues, Darryl Clark and Juice Williams may have field days against the defense, just as Mark Sanchez and company did in LA.

At this point in the season, Illinois seems the only other real Big Ten title contender, although their loss to Penn State will be difficult to overcome. Illinois showed their potent offense against Michigan, and if they can continue that success, they have a chance for at least a share of the Big Ten title.

Although Northwestern has not lost yet, it remains to be seen whether this streak will continue, and most likely ... it won't.

Michigan has shown tremendous struggles on both sides of the ball, although they won a shocking 27-25 game against the Badgers, after going down 19-0.

The Penn State vs. Ohio State game on October 25th in Columbus will most likely decide the conference's automatic BCS bid.

Current prediction for the Big Ten champion: Ohio State. Terrelle Pryor will only get better, and winning a big one in Madison will give him the confidence he needs to turn the Buckeye offense into a much more consistent scoring machine.
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Ohio State 20, Wisconsin 17 - What it All Means

Hello Buckeye fans. Life has been busy for a while, so I apologize for the lack of posts.

Wow, what a game in Madison! The trip to Madison has always (or at least in my memory) been a tough test for the Buckeyes, and this trip was no different. The hitting was outstanding, with players going down left and right. The big question mark for the Buckeyes was Terrelle Pryor - could he be the QB that Ohio State needed him to be? We knew that Beanie would have a big game. He, once again, showed himself to be one of the best players in college football.

Terrelle was not amazing, but he was great when he needed to be. The last drive was reminiscent of Troy Smith's drive to beat the Wolverines in 2005. He made the big plays when they needed to be made. It also always helps to have Wisconsin linebackers looking clueless on the 11 yard line. :-) What was that? Wisconsin's defense, other than the first drive, looked great the whole game, and just fell apart on Pryor's TD run. We'll take it.

Pryor showed glimpes of brilliance. He also showed thathe is a freshman. To beat teams like Michigan State, Penn State and Illinois, we are going to have to have more of the brilliance and less of the freshman.

If you can believe it, Ohio State is still hunt for the national championship game. In the next few weeks, a lot of the top teams play each other and will start knocking each other off. For example:

October 12th:
#1 OU vs. #5 Texas (Dallas)
#17 Oklahoma State at #3 Missouri
#4 LSU at #11 Florida

October 16th:
#9 BYU at TCU (watch out Cougars)

October 18th:
#1 Oklahoma at #16 Kansas (bye, bye Kansas!)
#13 Vanderbilt at #10 Georgia (bye bye Vandy - your run will end on this date and then against Florida, but a 10-2 Vanderbilt is a possibility - can you believe it?)
#12 Ohio State at #23 Michigan State - both have one loss, and the loser will be done.

October 25th:
#10 Georgia at #4 LSU (if Georgia loses they are done)
#17 Oklahoma State at #5 Texas
#6 Penn State at #12 Ohio State
#7 Texas Tech at #16 Kansas

November 1st:
#5 Texas at #7 Texas Tech (if Texas beats OU, both teams could be undefeated still by this point)
#10 Georgia vs. #11 Florida (Jacksonville) - these two will play for the East title and the right to play the LSU-Alabama winner for the SEC title. The loser's season ends.


If Ohio State is able to win out, they will rise in the polls. They will have to hope for some key upsets to rise high enough to get back into the BCS title mix, but it's happened before ... not so long ago either. :-)