Can Ohio State make the BCS title game?

Can the Buckeyes get back to the BCS title game?

Now that the BCS Standings have come out, let’s take a look at how the Buckeyes fare and if they even have a prayer to get to the BCS title game.

What do the Buckeyes have to do to get to the title game?

1. Win, win, win and win big. The Buckeyes only have a shot because Penn State is ranked #3 in the country and almost everyone agrees that they are a legitimate title contender. A big win over Penn State would show the voters that this Ohio State team is for real, and that they are a very different team that visited L.A. on September 13^th.

2. Everybody else? Lose, and lose often.

A. The Big 12 South

The good news for the Buckeyes is that although they are ranked in the BCS Week 1 Standings, four of the teams ahead of them are in the Big XII. Why is that good? Here’s why – they play each other often, which means that three of them will lose at least once. Here is the remaining schedule for those teams (just against each other!):

10/25: #6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas – if the Cowboys lose and the Buckeyes win this week, they will likely drop lower than the Buckeyes.

11/1: #1 Texas at #8 Texas Tech – same goes for the Red Raiders in this game, although they play a tough road contest against Kansas on 10/25, so they could fall this Saturday as well.

11/8: #6 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas Tech – if either of these teams lose before this game, this will be the clincher loss for one team.

11/22: #8 Texas Tech at #4 Oklahoma – The Red Raiders have given Oklahoma fits in recent years and another loss for the Sooners would finish their title hopes.

11/29: #4 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State – this will be a hard fought battle, and the loser’s title hopes will definitely end.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State each play 2 of these games and Texas Tech plays 3 – all of these teams could easily lose once more just against each other, let alone in the rest of their schedule.

Other tough games for these teams include:

10/25: Texas Tech at Kansas

11/15: Texas at Kansas

12/6: Big 12 Title Game

B. The SEC

The big problem for Ohio State is that although only Alabama (#2) and Georgia (#7) are ahead of them in the SEC, Florida (#10) and LSU (#13) would easily jump ahead of the Buckeyes if they win out and win the SEC Championship. The fact of the matter is that the country is so high on the SEC that even a two-loss SEC champion will likely play in the national title game. What do the Buckeyes need for this not to happen? Let’s look at the situation in the SEC.

• Only these four teams have a real shot at the BCS title game. Vanderbilt and Kentucky both have two losses, but neither has a real shot at winning the SEC.
• This Saturday, Georgia (#7) travels to Baton Rouge to face LSU (#13) and it is likely that the loser of this game, especially if it is LSU will be out of the title hunt. Then, we are down to three SEC contenders.
• On 11/1, Florida and Georgia face off in Jacksonville. The loser of this game likely will be out of the race only because they would not win their division (the SEC East). Hopefully for the Buckeyes, Georgia loses to LSU and beats Florida.
• 11/8: Alabama visits LSU in the SEC West match-up that will decide the SEC West’s representative in the SEC title game. The ideal situation for the Buckeyes is that LSU beats Alabama (likely their first loss).
• These are the only games in which these teams face each other, other than the SEC Championship game. It’s my guess that an undefeated Alabama will face a one-loss Florida and the winner of that game will go to the BCS title game. But we can only hope.
• Other games in which these teams could possibly (but not probably) lose are:
• 10/25: Alabama at Tennessee
• 11/8: Georgia at Kentucky (at times the Dawgs have struggled on offense, and Kentucky plays excellent defense, so this could be close).
• 11/15: Georgia at Auburn (rivalry game)
• 11/22: Ole Miss at LSU (Ole Miss has already knocked off Florida at home, could it do the same in Baton Rouge?).
• 11/29: Auburn at Alabama, Florida at FSU, Georgia Tech at Georgia – losses in these games would boost Ohio State’s chances in a huge way.

C. The Rest

#3 Penn State is an obvious one. If the Buckeyes win, they rise above Penn State. Easier said than done.

#5 USC – Real simple. If USC loses again, it is out. The problem … they are humming. Even if Washington State stinks, 69 points against anybody is impressive. Ohio State could only rack up 43 against Youngstown State. The only real tests left for USC are:

• 10/25 (this Saturday) at Arizona – probably their biggest chance for a loss. Arizona has looked impressive at home, beating California by 15 and Washington by 34. This will be a real test for USC.
• Do they have another one? Their remaining schedule after Arizona is … vs. Washington, vs. Cal, at Stanford (they won’t be bit this time), vs. Notre Dame and at UCLA (not really away per se). The fact of the matter is, USC should win all of these games. But as the saying goes, don’t bet on what 18-21 year-old boys do on a given Saturday.

BCS Busters:

The only non-BCS conference teams with a shot are Utah (#11) and Boise State (#12).

Utah, 8-0 and leading the Mountain West conference, leads a conference that is 8-4 against BCS conferences (including a 6-1 mark against the Pac 10!) and has looked impressive all year. If they beat both TCU and BYU (home games), they will have an impressive slate of wins to their credit. It is still unlikely however, that they would jump ahead of a one-loss BCS school like Ohio State, although that remains to be seen.

Boise State, who is 6-0 and is atop the Western Athletic Conference, would have a much tougher road to get to the BCS title game. The WAC is only 4-11 against BCS conference opponents, and although they beat Oregon 37-32, the rest of their schedule has not been very tough. It would take a major miracle for the Broncos to make the BCS title game.

So can it happen? Can Ohio State make the BCS title game? Yes, but it would take every team above them to lose at least once, and sometimes twice. There is too much that they need to have happen to expect going to the BCS title game if they go undefeated. If they do win out, it looks like a trip to the Rose Bowl, which hasn’t happened since the 1996-97 season (Joe Germaine to David Boston ring a bell?) and their win over Arizona State and Jake Plummer.

Go Bucks!